The Use of Markov Chains to Estimate Destination Switching and Market Share

Jeong-Gil Choi, Jin-Won Mok and Jin-Soo Han

Tourism Economics, 2011, vol. 17, issue 6, 1181-1196

Abstract: The Markov chain model provides researchers and policy makers with a means to predict travellers' choices of destination. This study predicts international tourist flows among three Asian countries and the USA, and provides a path for gauging the switching patterns of tourists from one country to another. Destination loyalty (hard core component) and the future market share for 2009 and 2010 were estimated. The findings provide necessary information to many interest groups, including government policy makers, travel companies, airline companies and researchers.

Keywords: destination switching; forecasting; tourist flows; Markov analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:17:y:2011:i:6:p:1181-1196

DOI: 10.5367/te.2011.0091

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