Research Note: A Study of Outliers of International Tourism Statistics

Xie Feng-Yuan and Xie Feng-Jie
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Xie Feng-Yuan: School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Foreign Languages, Lvshun South Rd, Lvshunkou, Dalian, Liaoning Province, 116044 PR China
Xie Feng-Jie: School of Economics and Management, Shenyang Agricultural University, 120 Tanglin Road, Shen He District, Shenyang City, Liaoning Province, 110866 PR China

Tourism Economics, 2013, vol. 19, issue 5, 1215-1227

Abstract: As international tourism is an industry that is easily impacted by external shocks, there is always structural mutation of the time series related with it, which causes the existence of outliers. Those outliers will have an impact on analyses based on such data. Using quarterly data from 1994 to 2006, this paper detects outliers in the time series of international tourists to China and finds that the number of international tourists during the second and the third quarters of 2003 are outliers of the time series. To eliminate the impact of outliers, the paper uses the SARIMA model to forecast the values of outliers. By replacing the original value with the forecasted values, the authors conduct a co-integration analysis with the new time series and the corresponding quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data. The results show that research conducted without considering outliers overestimates the effect of international tourism on economic growth.

Keywords: international tourism; tourism and growth; outliers; SARIMA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:19:y:2013:i:5:p:1215-1227

DOI: 10.5367/te.2013.0233

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