Research Note: Has International Tourism Promoted Economic Growth in China? A Panel Threshold Regression Approach

Taotao Deng, Mulan Ma and Shuai Shao
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Taotao Deng: School of Urban and Regional Science, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, No 777, Guoding Road, Shanghai 200433, China
Mulan Ma: School of Tourism and Event Management, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, No 1900 Wenxiang Road, Shanghai, 201620, China

Tourism Economics, 2014, vol. 20, issue 4, 911-917

Abstract: The authors confirm a non-monotonic relationship between international tourism and economic growth, using China's province-level panel data from 1987 to 2010. Two endogenous cut-off points of the efficiency of international tourism in economic growth are identified. When the degree of tourism specialization is lower than 1.80% or between 1.80% and 2.04%, international tourism has a significant positive impact on economic growth, but the magnitude of the impact is weaker in the latter case. When the degree of tourism specialization exceeds 2.04%, an insignificant negative relationship between tourism and economic growth emerges. This suggests that tourism-led economic growth may not be sustained at high levels of tourism specialization.

Keywords: international tourism; economic growth; panel threshold regression; tourism-led growth hypothesis; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:20:y:2014:i:4:p:911-917

DOI: 10.5367/te.2013.0308

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