Research Note: Forecasting Film-Induced Tourism — The Dolphin Tale Case

Maria Luisa Cortón and Maling Ebrahimpour

Tourism Economics, 2014, vol. 20, issue 6, 1349-1356

Abstract: Dolphin Tale is a major motion picture released by Warner Brothers in 2011. The authors forecast the number of visitors to the film location, including the film-induced tourism effect originated by Dolphin Tale. They use intervention analysis to measure this effect, with the pre-film series forecasted trend as the comparison baseline instead of the usual linear trend. They address the proper modelling of the series seasonality in the presence of an abrupt increase in visitors immediately after the premiere and a lack of data on the subsequent months. They find that the film induced a 51% increase in the mean level of visitors to the location.

Keywords: time series analysis; intervention analysis; SARIMA models; structural models; seasonality; film-induced tourism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:20:y:2014:i:6:p:1349-1356

DOI: 10.5367/te.2013.0339

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