Estimating the Tourism Demand Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Malaga Airport Expansion

Juan L. Eugenio-Martin
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Juan L. Eugenio-Martin: Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Facultad de Economía, Empresa y Turismo, Módulo D, Despacho D.2-06, Campus de Tafira, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain

Tourism Economics, 2016, vol. 22, issue 2, 254-268

Abstract: This paper shows how structural time series models can be used to estimate the tourism demand impact of an airport expansion. The impact is measured by interventions in the series. Such interventions can be related to one-off events, permanent shifts or permanent changes in the slope of the series. The study case is the Malaga airport expansion. The impact distinguishes two effects: the new terminal building and the new runway. The results show that the infrastructure made a difference in attracting additional international tourists, especially those flying with low-cost carriers. The estimations show that the traffic increased by 6% due to the new terminal building, and the growth rate increased by 18% due to the new runway.

Keywords: forecasting; tourism demand; tourism infrastructure; airport expansion; structural time series; low-cost carriers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:2:p:254-268

DOI: 10.5367/te.2016.0547

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