Patterns of seasonality and tourism demand forecasting

Anna Serena Vergori
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Anna Serena Vergori: University of Salento via per Monteroni, Italy

Tourism Economics, 2017, vol. 23, issue 5, 1011-1027

Abstract: Seasonality is a phenomenon that affects the vast majority of tourist destinations. The negative aspects of seasonality have been widely discussed from economic, social and environmental points of view. On the contrary, the unreliability of tourism demand forecasts is rarely listed among the negative effects of seasonality. This is despite the importance of the quality of forecasts for the planning of economic activities. This article evaluates the impact of different patterns of seasonality on tourism demand forecasting in the light of different volume of tourism flows. With this aim in mind, the monthly tourist overnight stays in four European countries – namely Austria, Finland, Portugal and Netherlands – are analysed for the period January 1990–December 2014. Data show both one-peak and two-peak seasonality. Results highlight that the stronger seasonality is, the less reliable forecasts are.

Keywords: forecasts; one-peak seasonality; SARIMA models; two-peak seasonality; unit roots (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:23:y:2017:i:5:p:1011-1027

DOI: 10.1177/1354816616656418

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