The contagion effect of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on US tourism sector: Evidence from time-varying granger causality test

Oguzhan Cepni, Tarik Dogru and Ozgur Ozdemir

Tourism Economics, 2023, vol. 29, issue 4, 906-928

Abstract: This study investigates the effect of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on the overall stock market and the stock performance of the tourism and hospitality industry and its subsectors utilizing a novel time-varying robust Granger causality test. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic–induced uncertainty has an adverse impact on the overall economy, tourism and hospitality industry, and subsectors of tourism and hospitality. However, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic–induced uncertainty is more significant in the tourism and hospitality industry and its subsectors. In particular, hotels sector has experienced the largest impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by restaurants and airline sectors, respectively. Research and practical implications are discussed. JEL Classification: C1, C5, F2, G11, G17, G41

Keywords: Pandemic; COVID-19; uncertainty; tourism; time-varying causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:29:y:2023:i:4:p:906-928

DOI: 10.1177/13548166221077633

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