Further Evidence on the Accuracy of Residential Vacancy Chain Models

Philip C. Emmi and Lena Magnusson
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Philip C. Emmi: Department of Geography, Room 270, Orsen Spencer Hall, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112, USA
Lena Magnusson: Institute for Housing Research, Uppsala University, P.O. Box 785, S-801-29 Gävle, Sweden

Urban Studies, 1995, vol. 32, issue 8, 1361-1367

Abstract: Residential vacancy chain models simulate the transfer of vacant housing opportunities among sectors of an urban housing market. The Markov model simulates forward-reaching chains in response to vacancy initiations. The Leontief model simulates backward-reaching chains in response to vacancy absorptions. Each simulates residential mobility among housing sectors as a by-product. The accuracy of these models was assessed in earlier work by the authors, using 1975-80 data from Gävle, Jonkoping and Vasteras, Sweden, to project intra-urban residential mobility in each town during the 1980-85 period. Using log-linear analysis to compare projected moves with observed moves, they found projection errors ranging from 3-12 per cent. In this paper, data from the 1985-90 period are used first to repeat these assessments over the subsequent time-period and then to extend the projection period from 5 to 10 years. Projection errors range from 5-11 per cent for the 5-year period and from 8-18 per cent for the 10-year period. Both the Markov and the Leontief models perform equally well. Models with more homogeneous housing sector definitions produce more consistent results.

Date: 1995
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:32:y:1995:i:8:p:1361-1367

DOI: 10.1080/00420989550012519

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