A Two-stage Housing Choice Forecasting Model

Yong Tu and Judy Goldfinch
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Yong Tu: Centre for Housing Research and Urban Studies, University of Glasgow, 25 Bute Gardens, Glasgow, G12 8RT, Scotland, UK
Judy Goldfinch: Department of Mathematics, Napier University, 219 Colinton Road, Edinburgh EH14 1DT, Scotland, UK

Urban Studies, 1996, vol. 33, issue 3, 517-537

Abstract: A new housing choice forecasting model is developed here to answer a practical question: how to forecast housing demand at a disaggregate level. Being different from the previous housing choice models, this model is derived from housing sub-market structure based on a random utility approach. Housing choice is thought to be a joint choice of all the components associated with a dwelling, These components create a huge bundle of dwelling alternatives resulting in an empirical calculation problem. To avoid this problem, the model developed in this paper separates the joint choice behaviour into two stages: the choices of the key dwelling components which construct the housing sub-markets and the choices of the non-key dwelling components which distinguish individual dwellings in each housing sub-market. Some policy simulations are presented based on this model.

Date: 1996
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:33:y:1996:i:3:p:517-537

DOI: 10.1080/00420989650011898

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