The Cyclical Component in Brazilian GDP

Francisco Cribari-Neto

Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 1993, vol. 13, issue 1

Abstract: This paper presents an estimate of the cyclical component in Brazilian GDP obtained by allowing the trend component to follow a stochastic process. It also compares this estimate with a more naive one, obtained by forcing the trend to be deterministic. The main result this paper conveys is that the cyclical component in Brazilian GDP is very small, and hence almost all output fluctuations have been caused by long-run (real) factors.

Date: 1993
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