Os cenários da utilização da energia solar no Brasil no horizonte 1990

João Luiz Fonseca dos Santos

Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 1982, vol. 2, issue 2

Abstract: It is proposed that solar energy be a complementary part of Brazil's energy development framework. Actually, it may be the only available alternative for certain Brazilian regions. This study consists of the development of a series of hypotheses related to the use existing foreign solar techniques in Brazil. Generally, the present is the point of departure in the construction of "scenarios" defined by Jantsch as "the hypothetical occurence of events, built to point out chains of causation and decision knots". In the case of solar energy, the construction of scenarios starting from the present, as a classific way of exploring the future, would be of minor service due to the fact that most practical utilizations of solar energy in Brazil are still at the experimental stage. Consequently, this article suggests that construction of scenarios based not in the present but on tendencies, produced by integrating various forecasting methods which have been used in the study. A double approach of exploratory and normative scenarios is emphatized in this study. Whithin this approach the method of crossed impacts appears to be especially suitable to increase the level of precision of the probabilities assigned to the chosen scenarios.

Date: 1982
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://periodicos.fgv.br/bre/article/view/3163 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sbe:breart:v:2:y:1982:i:2:a:3163

Access Statistics for this article

Brazilian Review of Econometrics is currently edited by Daniel Monte

More articles in Brazilian Review of Econometrics from Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE ().