About the state of the world wheat market at the current stage

Pogorelyy M. U.
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Pogorelyy M. U.: National Research University "Belgorod State University"

Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 2013, vol. 23, issue 11, 24-30

Abstract: The author considers the Phillips curve in the historical aspect. In the article there is a mention that there were examples when the Phillips curve was not confirmed. Then the author goes on to describe the post-crisis economic situation. The author refers to the food problem as a global problem, which has been designated in the papers of the Club of Rome. Then the author characterizes world wheat production for the period 2003-2013. The author gives an example that shows the volatility of the wheat market (CBOT). The author explains why he uses quotations of forward contracts, and not in the spot market. The author scrutinizes the quotations of CBOT wheat futures contracts in the paper. The author substantiates the need for an econometric model in the research process of futures CBOT wheat prices. The author justifies the chosen scientific approach that defines the methods of research and research model. The author uses econometric approach in the paper. The author uses linear regression as a method of the research. The author creates the equation of linear regression using the software. The author makes a conclusion that there is a certain linear relationship between the price of the futures contract CBOT wheat and the level of unemployment in the United States during the period. The author verifies the effect of Phillips curve. Results of this paper allow the analyst to make informed pricing decisions on the organized market of wheat trade in the medium term.

Date: 2013
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