Dynamic Forecasting Rules and the Complexity of Exchange Rate Dynamics

Hans Dewachter, Romain Houssa, Marco Lyrio () and P.R. Kaltwasser

Review of Business and Economic Literature, 2011, vol. 56, issue 4, 454-472

Abstract: This paper investigates the exchange rate dynamics implied by a heterogeneous agent model proposed in De Grauwe and Grimaldi (2006). The two groups of agents, chartists and fundamentalists, use simple forecasting rules and the ex post relative profitability to decide whether to switch to the other group. We extend this model by introducing a simple evolutionary selection mechanism which allows agents not only to switch between groups but also to adapt the forecasting rule of each group over time. Two results stand out: (i) This selection process naturally leads agents to choose forecasting rules over time which results in the convergence of the exchange rate to its fundamental value; and (ii) The learning rule is not robust to the introduction of shocks to the fundamental. Once we allow for random variation in the fundamental, the model exhibits again all of the nonlinear features discussed in De Grauwe and Grimaldi (2006): the disconnect puzzle, volatility clustering and fat tails.

Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Working Paper: Dynamic Forecasting Rules and the Complexity of Exchange Rate Dynamics (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sen:rebelj:v:56:i:4:y:2011:p:454-472

Access Statistics for this article

Review of Business and Economic Literature is currently edited by Hans Kluwer

More articles in Review of Business and Economic Literature from Intersentia
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Petra Van den Bempt ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).