Beeinflusst Krieg die Finanzmärkte? Eine Entgegnung auf die Kommentare von Jean-Christian Lambelet

Marcel Kucher and Bruno Frey

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), 1999, vol. 135, issue II, 221-227

Abstract: The econometric analysis of government bonds prices reveals new historical insights and can therefore support the research activities of historians. In his comments on our article "Krieg und Finanzmarkt", which deals with this topic, JEAN-CHRISTIAN LAMBELET raises many important points. Our reply adopts and discusses some of these points critically. Our main focus, however, is JEAN-CHRISTIAN LAMBELET's criticism that common threats cannot be traced with our methodology. Therefore, we present new econometric estimations, which analyze the threats common to all bonds traded in Switzerland. Important historical events that constitute common threats are e. g. the beginning of World War II, the war entry of the United States or the Russian offensive at Stalingrad. On the other hand, the perceived common risk decreased due to the invasion of the Allied forces in the Normandy or the German capitulation in 1945. Under these altered specifications, too, the analysis of financial markets can offer non-trivial insights concerning historical events.

Date: 1999
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