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Business Cycles in Turkey and European Union Countries: A Perspective to the Membership

Hakan Berument, Zübeyir Kılınç and Mustafa Yücel ()

Sosyoekonomi Journal, 2005, issue 2005-1

Abstract: This article assesses how the business cycles in Turkey coincide with the business cycles of member and candidate countries of the European Union. The evidence provided in the paper suggests that there is a negative linkage between Turkish and European business cycle dynamics when the Turkish crises are included in the data sets. This implies that the timing of the common economic policies of the European Union in order to decrease the volatility of output may actually increase the output volatility, rather than to decrease, for Turkey. On the other hand, when only the non-crises data of Turkey is employed, a pro-cyclical linkage is revealed between Turkish and the European economies. This suggests that policies enhancing the macroeconomic stability and preventing crises are crucial for healthier synchronization of the Turkish economy with its EU counterparts.

Keywords: Business Cycles; Economic Integration; and European Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E23 E32 F42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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