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Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Oluşumu: ARDL Yaklaşımı

Tuba Şahi̇noğlu, Kenan Özden, Selim Başar and Hayati Aksu

Sosyoekonomi Journal, 2010, issue 2010-1

Abstract: Understanding causes of inflation is important for combating inflation phenomenon. In this study, causes of inflation of Turkish economy are investigated. For this purpose, an inflation model based on Triangle Inflation Model is applied by including 1987:01-2008:04 data. According to the long term model results hold by ARDL approach, external price level, wages and output gap have positive impacts on Turkish price level. While wages and external prices have prior effects on inflation, effect of output gap is lagged. When the model is extended by taking into consideration fiscal and monetary variables, a negative relationship appears between budget deficits and price level. Money supply affects price level first positively and then negatively.

Keywords: Inflation; Triangle Inflation Model; ARDL. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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