Kırgızistan Dış Ticaret Dengesinin Belirleyicileri

Jusup Pirimbaev and Zamira Oskonbaeva

Sosyoekonomi Journal, 2015, issue 23(25)

Abstract: This study aims to estimate using monthly data for the 2000-2013 period, the main determinants of the trade balance of Kyrgyzstan. For this purpose, in the framework of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model were used the following variables: the balance of trade (export/import), GDP, the real exchange rate and money supply (M2). The results of the econometric analysis show that the monetary and the elasticity models perform better. In other words, 1% increase in the real exchange rate leads to an improvement in the trade balance by about 1.09%, and 1% decrease in the money supply leads to an improvement in the trade balance by about 0.51%. In the long run Marshall-Lerner condition is observed while in the short term is not found J-curve effect.

Keywords: Foreign Trade Balance; ARDL Model; Elasticity Approach; Absorption Approach; Monetarist Approach; J-curve. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sos:sosjrn:150304

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