TCMB, FED ve ECB Para Politikalarının Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkileri: 1994-2014 Dönemi Analizi

Elif Erer, Deniz Erer, Mustafa Çayir and Nasuh Oğuzhan Altay

Sosyoekonomi Journal, 2016, issue 24(29)

Abstract: It is of extremely importance for policymakers to know how much time and what direction policy instruments affect macroeconomic variables in the selection of monetary policy instruments and in determination of how to implement in terms of the fluctuations in economic process. In this paper, the effects of monetary policies by CBRT, FED and ECB on macro economic variables in Turkey compared with each other considering high and low inflation regime by using TVAR method from the point of view of exchange rate channel, which is one of the monetary transmission mechanism between 1994:01 and 2014:10. Short-term (interbank) interest rate used as monetary policy instrument. The industrial production index has used to represent GDP as the measure of economic activity. Price level and exchange rate variables have measured by consumer price index and real effective exchange rate, respectively. Besides, crude oil has been taken into account as explatory variable.The results show that CBRT short-term interest rate affects both industrial production index and real exchange rate ppositively, but they also Show that FED affects only the real exchange rate positively in high inflation period. The response of real exchange rate is positive to CBRT short-term interest rate. However, this response is firstly positive then negative to FED and it is negative to ECB monetary policy. The monetary policies of CBRT, FED and ECB have also first positive then negatif effects on industrial production index, but they differentiate from each other in terms of the effect times of them. In conlusion, short-term interest policy the one of the FED monetary polices shown to be vital in the sense of Turkey once again.

Keywords: CBRT; FED and ECB Monetary Policies; TVAR; Exchange Rate Channel. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E00 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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