Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of TurkeyAbstract: In this study, the causal relationships of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) with various financial factors are examined. As a result of the analysis, it is determined that the change in the Istanbul-Stock-Exchange-Industry Index (ISEIND) causes the change in the PMI and the changes in the PMI also causes the changes in the Industrial-Production Index (IPI) and the Capacity-UtilizationRates (CUR). It is also determined that the causality towards to PMI from the ISEIND and causality towards IPI from PMI is valid in the medium- and long-run, whereas the causality towards PMI to CUR are valid for the all periods. According to these results, PMI can be considered as a leading indicator for the real sector. However, the same result does not apply to the financial sector

Saffet Akdağ, Ali Deran and Ömer İskenderoğlu

Sosyoekonomi Journal, 2020, issue 28(45)

Keywords: Purchasing Manager’s Index; Istanbul Stock Exchange Industry Index; Industrial Production Index; Capacity Utilization Rates; Granger Casuality; Frequency Domain Causality. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E27 G20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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