Estimating population sizes with the Rasch model

Chang Xuan Mao (), Cuiying Yang (), Yitong Yang () and Wei Zhuang ()
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Chang Xuan Mao: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Cuiying Yang: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Yitong Yang: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Wei Zhuang: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2017, vol. 69, issue 3, No 9, 705-716

Abstract: Abstract The Rasch model has been used to estimate the unknown size of a population from multi-list data. It can take both the list effectiveness and individual heterogeneity into account. Estimating the population size is shown to be equivalent to estimating the odds that an individual is unseen. The odds parameter is nonidentifiable. We propose a sequence of estimable lower bounds, including the greatest one, for the odds parameter. We show that a lower bound can be calculated by linear programming. Estimating a lower bound of the odds leads to an estimator for a lower bound of the population size. A simulation experiment is performed and three real examples are studied.

Keywords: Capture–recapture; Nonidentifiability; Social security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s10463-016-0561-1

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