Managing Cost Overrun Risk in Project Funding Allocation

Chung-Li Tseng (), Kyle Lin () and Satheesh Sundararajan

Annals of Operations Research, 2005, vol. 135, issue 1, 127-153

Abstract: This paper discusses decision making of project funding allocation under uncertain project costs. Because project costs are uncertain and funding allocations may not necessarily match the costs required, each project is inherently subject to a cost overrun risk (COR). In this paper, a model is proposed in which project cost is treated as a factor with a probability density function. The decision maker then allocates the total funding to the projects while minimizing a weighted sum of mean and variance of the COR of the project portfolio. Some properties of project COR are derived and interpreted. Optimal funding allocation, in relationship to factors such as various project sizes and riskiness, project interdependency, and the decision maker’s risk preference, is analyzed. The proposed funding allocation model can be integrated with project selection decision-making and provides a basis for more effective project control. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Keywords: resource allocation; project management; decision making under uncertainty; cost overrun risk; portfolio optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-005-6238-4

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