Integrating stochastic programming and decision tree techniques in land conversion problems

Vincenzina Messina () and Valentina Bosetti

Annals of Operations Research, 2006, vol. 142, issue 1, 243-258

Abstract: This paper is concerned with gradual land conversion problems, placing the main focus on the interaction between time and uncertainty. This aspect is extremely relevant since most decisions made in the field of natural resources and sustainable development are irreversible decisions. In particular, we discuss and develop a scenario-based multi-stage stochastic programming model in order to determine the optimal land portfolio in time, given uncertainty affecting the market. The approach is then integrated in a decision tree framework in order to account for domain specific (environmental) uncertainty that, diversely from market uncertainty, may depend on the decision taken. Although, the designed methodology has many general applications, in the present work we focus on a particular case study, concerning a semi-degraded natural park located in northern Italy. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

Keywords: Stochastic programming; Decision analysis; Land management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-006-6170-2

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