Modelling of hydrological persistence for hidden state Markov decision processes

Aiden Fisher (), David Green and Andrew Metcalfe

Annals of Operations Research, 2012, vol. 199, issue 1, 215-224

Abstract: A reservoir in south east Queensland can supply irrigators, industry or domestic users. Stochastic inflow is modelled by a hidden state Markov chain, with three hidden states corresponding to prevailing climatic conditions. A stochastic dynamic program that relies on estimation of the hidden state is implemented. The optimal decisions are compared with those obtained if the hidden state Markov chain model is replaced with a model that relies on the Southern Oscillation Index to define prevailing climatic conditions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Keywords: Hidden Markov model; Hidden state Markov decision process; Reservoir operation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-011-0992-2

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