Combining optimization with simulation to obtain credible models for intensive care units

Fermín Mallor () and Cristina Azcárate

Annals of Operations Research, 2014, vol. 221, issue 1, 255-271

Abstract: In this paper we develop a simulation model to study bed occupancy levels in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The main contributions of this study are: (1) A proposal for generalized regression models to fully capture the high variability of patients’ length of stay; (2) Proof that a simulation model that does not incorporate the management decisions by clinical staff cannot be considered valid; (3) The development of a mathematical model to represent these management decisions, and (4) A proposal for a method combining optimization with simulation to estimate the model parameters. This provides a valid simulation model that includes the physician management of an ICU. Validation is accomplished by comparing distribution patterns in daily bed occupancy records against simulated bed occupancy data. The methodology is tested using data provided by the Hospital of Navarre in Spain. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2014

Keywords: Simulation; Statistical modeling; Validation of simulation models; Optimization with simulation; Intensive care units (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-011-1035-8

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