Estimation of Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes: application to modeling of $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 and fuel-switching
Julien Chevallier and
Stéphane Goutte
Annals of Operations Research, 2017, vol. 255, issue 1, No 10, 169-197
Abstract:
Abstract This paper proposes an estimation methodology for Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. The estimation unfolds in two steps, with a least-squares method for a subset of parameters in the first stage, and a constrained maximum likelihood for the remaining diffusion and Lévy distribution parameters. We develop this estimation procedure to demonstrate that the class of mean-reverting Lévy jump processes provides a better fit of the electricity and $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 (carbon) market prices. In particular, we describe the dynamics of the fuel-switching price (from coal to gas) when taking into account carbon costs. Several stochastic processes are considered to model the fuel-switching price: (1) the Brownian motion, and (2) Poisson and a panel of Lévy jump processes. The results unambiguously point out the need to resort to jump modeling techniques to model satisfactorily the fuel-switching price. The Gaussianity assumption is also clearly rejected in favor of jump models, especially for pure-jump processes such as Lévy processes.
Keywords: Stochastic processes; OR in energy; Lévy process; Normal inverse Gaussian; $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2; Fuel-switching; C15; C53; Q40; 60G51; 60H35; 91G70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-015-1967-5 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:annopr:v:255:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-015-1967-5
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/journal/10479
DOI: 10.1007/s10479-015-1967-5
Access Statistics for this article
Annals of Operations Research is currently edited by Endre Boros
More articles in Annals of Operations Research from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().