Fuzzy-probabilistic PERT

Barbara Gładysz ()
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Barbara Gładysz: Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Annals of Operations Research, 2017, vol. 258, issue 2, No 12, 437-452

Abstract: Abstract Using PERT (Program evaluation and review technique), one assumes that the time required to carry out the individual tasks in a project can be approximated using a beta distribution. It is assumed that the parameters of these distributions (the minimum, maximum and most likely times) are estimated by experts in accordance with the properties of the beta distribution. However, this is not always the case. This article shows how one may analyse the time required to carry out a task. Two approaches to describing uncertainty regarding the duration of tasks are used: probabilistic and fuzzy. This article proposes a mixture of a beta probability distribution with a generative probability distribution to describe the duration of a task. An illustrative examples are given.

Keywords: Project; Duration of a task; Fuzzy variable; Mixed probability distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-016-2315-0

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