Default avoidance on credit card portfolios using accounting, demographical and exploratory factors: decision making based on machine learning (ML) techniques

Nikolaos Sariannidis (), Stelios Papadakis (), Alexandros Garefalakis (), Christos Lemonakis () and Tsioptsia Kyriaki-Argyro ()
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Nikolaos Sariannidis: Western Macedonia University οf Applied Sciences
Stelios Papadakis: Technological Educational Institute of Crete
Alexandros Garefalakis: Technological Educational Institute of Crete
Tsioptsia Kyriaki-Argyro: Western Macedonia University οf Applied Sciences

Annals of Operations Research, 2020, vol. 294, issue 1, No 31, 715-739

Abstract: Abstract Effective and thorough credit-risk management is a key factor for lending institutions, as significant financial losses can arise from the borrowers’ default. Consequently, machine learning methods can measure and analyze credit risk objectively when at the same time they face increasingly attention. This study analyzes default payment data from a credit cards’ portfolio containing some 30,000 clients from Taiwan with twenty-three attributes and with no missing information. We compare prediction accuracy of seven classification methods used, i.e. KNN, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, Decision Trees, Random Forest, SVC, and Linear SVC. The results indicate that only few out of most of the typical variables used can adequately analyze default characteristics in terms of lending decisions. The results provide effective feedback to credit evaluators, lending institutions and business analysts for in-depth analysis. Also, they mention to the importance of the precautionary borrowing techniques to be used to better understand credit-card borrowers’ behavior, along with specific accounting, historical and demographical characteristics.

Keywords: Debt; Credit card portfolios; Machine learning (ML) methods; Explanatory factors; Accounting data; Demographic data; Credit history data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-019-03188-0

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