Predicting the next Pogačar: a data analytical approach to detect young professional cycling talents

Bram Janssens (), Matthias Bogaert () and Mathijs Maton ()
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Bram Janssens: Ghent University
Matthias Bogaert: Ghent University
Mathijs Maton: Ghent University

Annals of Operations Research, 2023, vol. 325, issue 1, No 24, 557-588

Abstract: Abstract The importance of young athletes in the field of professional cycling has sky-rocketed during the past years. Nevertheless, the early talent identification of these riders largely remains a subjective assessment. Therefore, an analytical system which automatically detects talented riders based on their freely available youth results should be installed. However, such a system cannot be copied directly from related fields, as large distinctions are observed between cycling and other sports. The aim of this paper is to develop such a data analytical system, which leverages the unique features of each race and thereby focusses on feature engineering, data quality, and visualization. To facilitate the deployment of prediction algorithms in situations without complete cases, we propose an adaptation to the k-nearest neighbours imputation algorithm which uses expert knowledge. Overall, our proposed method correlates strongly with eventual rider performance and can aid scouts in targeting young talents. On top of that, we introduce several model interpretation tools to give insight into which current starting professional riders are expected to perform well and why.

Keywords: Sports analytics; Scouting analytics; Missing value imputation; Predictive modelling; Interpretable machine learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04476-4

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