Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems

Jorgen-Vitting Andersen (), Roy Cerqueti () and Jessica Riccioni ()
Additional contact information
Jorgen-Vitting Andersen: Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne Maison des Sciences Economiques
Roy Cerqueti: Sapienza University of Rome
Jessica Riccioni: Roma Tre University

Annals of Operations Research, 2023, vol. 326, issue 1, No 12, 295-316

Abstract: Abstract This paper develops a model for predicting the failure time of a wide class of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems. To this aim, we adopt a rational expectation-type approach by artificially creating an information set based on the observation of a collection of systems of the same class–the catalog. Specifically, we state the connection between a synthetic statistical measure of the survived components’ weights and the failure time of the systems. In detail, we follow the evolution of the systems in the catalog from the starting point to their failure–obtained after the failure of some of their components. Then, we store the couples given by the measure of the survived components and the failure time. Finally, we employ such couples for having a prediction of the failure times of a set of new systems–the in-vivo systems–conditioned on the specific values of the considered statistical measure. We test different statistical measures for predicting the failure time of the in-vivo systems. As a result, we give insights on the statistical measure which is more effective in contributing to providing a reliable estimation of the systems’ failure time. A discussion on the initial distribution of the weights is also carried out.

Keywords: Reliability; Rational expectations; Weighted k-out-of-n systems; Failure prediction; Statistical measures. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-023-05300-x Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:annopr:v:326:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-023-05300-x

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/journal/10479

DOI: 10.1007/s10479-023-05300-x

Access Statistics for this article

Annals of Operations Research is currently edited by Endre Boros

More articles in Annals of Operations Research from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().