Optimizing the economic dispatch of weakly-connected mini-grids under uncertainty using joint chance constraints

Nesrine Ouanes (), Tatiana González Grandón (), Holger Heitsch () and René Henrion ()
Additional contact information
Nesrine Ouanes: Humboldt University Berlin
Tatiana González Grandón: Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Holger Heitsch: Weierstrass Institute Berlin
René Henrion: Weierstrass Institute Berlin

Annals of Operations Research, 2025, vol. 344, issue 1, No 17, 499-531

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we deal with a renewable-powered mini-grid, connected to an unreliable main grid, in a Joint Chance Constrained (JCC) programming setting. In several rural areas in Africa with low energy access rates, grid-connected mini-grid system operators contend with four different types of uncertainties: forecasting errors of solar power and load; frequency and outages duration from the main-grid. These uncertainties pose new challenges to the classical power system’s operation tasks. Three alternatives to the JCC problem are presented. In particular, we present an Individual Chance Constraint (ICC), Expected-Value Model (EVM) and a so called regular model that ignores outages and forecasting uncertainties. The JCC model has the capability to guarantee a high probability of meeting the local demand throughout an outage event by keeping appropriate reserves for Diesel generation and battery discharge. In contrast, the easier to handle ICC model guarantees such probability only individually for different time steps, resulting in a much less robust dispatch. The even simpler EVM focuses solely on average values of random variables. We illustrate the four models through a comparison of outcomes attained from a real mini-grid in Lake Victoria, Tanzania. The results show the dispatch modifications for battery and Diesel reserve planning, with the JCC model providing the most robust results, albeit with a small increase in costs.

Keywords: Joint chance constraints; Mini-grid operation; Unreliable main grid; Stochastic forecasting errors; Spherical radial decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-024-06287-9 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:annopr:v:344:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-024-06287-9

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/journal/10479

DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06287-9

Access Statistics for this article

Annals of Operations Research is currently edited by Endre Boros

More articles in Annals of Operations Research from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().