Prediction and decoding of metaverse coin dynamics: a granular quest using MODWT-Facebook’s prophet-TBATS and XAI methodology

Indranil Ghosh, Amith Vikram Megaravalli, Mohammad Zoynul Abedin () and Kazim Topuz
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Indranil Ghosh: Institute of Management Technology Hyderabad
Amith Vikram Megaravalli: FLAME University
Mohammad Zoynul Abedin: Swansea University
Kazim Topuz: Collins College of Business, The University of Tulsa

Annals of Operations Research, 2025, vol. 346, issue 3, No 17, 2423-2459

Abstract: Abstract The growing media buzz and industry focus on the emergence and rapid development of Metaverse technology have paved the way for the escalation of multifaceted research. Specific Metaverse coins have come into existence, but they have barely seen any traction among practitioners despite their tremendous potential. The current work endeavors to deeply analyze the temporal characteristics of 6 Metaverse coins through the lens of predictive analytics and explain the forecasting process. The dearth of research imposes serious challenges in building the forecasting model. We resort to a granular prediction setup incorporating the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transformation (MODWT) technique to disentangle the original series into subseries. Facebook's Prophet and TBATS algorithms are utilized to individually draw predictions on granular components. Aggregating components-wise forecasted figures achieve the final forecast. Facebook's Prophet is deployed in a multivariate setting, applying a set of explanatory features covering macroeconomic, technical, and social media indicators. Rigorous performance checks justify the efficiency of the integrated forecasting framework. Additionally, to interpret the black box typed prediction framework, two explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) frameworks, SHAP and LIME, are used to gauge the nature of the influence of the predictor variables, which serve several practical insights.

Keywords: Metaverse coin; Maximal overlap discrete wavelet transformation (MODWT); Facebook’s prophet; TBATS; Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06491-1

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