Competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage: Novel measures show no evidence of decline

László Csató () and Dóra Gréta Petróczy ()
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László Csató: Institute for Computer Science and Control (SZTAKI), Hungarian Research Network (HUN-REN)
Dóra Gréta Petróczy: Budapest Metropolitan University

Annals of Operations Research, 2025, vol. 352, issue 1, No 4, 105-120

Abstract: Abstract Competitive balance, which refers to the level of control teams have over a sports competition, is a crucial indicator for tournament organisers. According to previous studies, competitive balance has significantly declined in the UEFA Champions League group stage over the recent decades. Our paper introduces alternative indices to investigate this issue. Two ex ante measures are based on Elo ratings, and four dynamic concentration indicators compare the final group ranking to reasonable benchmarks. Using these indices, we find no evidence of any long-run trend in the competitive balance of the UEFA Champions League group stage between the 2003/04 and 2023/24 seasons.

Keywords: Competitive balance; Elo rating; Football; Kendall rank correlation; UEFA Champions League; 62P20; 91B82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L11 Z20 Z21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06780-9

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