Learning ensembles of interpretable simple structure

Gaurav Arwade () and Sigurdur Olafsson ()
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Gaurav Arwade: Iowa State University
Sigurdur Olafsson: Iowa State University

Annals of Operations Research, 2025, vol. 353, issue 2, No 15, 869 pages

Abstract: Abstract Decision-making in complex systems often relies on machine learning models, yet highly accurate models such as XGBoost and neural networks can obscure the reasoning behind their predictions. In operations research applications, understanding how a decision is made is often as crucial as the decision itself. Traditional interpretable models, such as decision trees and logistic regression, provide transparency but may struggle with datasets containing intricate feature interactions. However, complexity in decision-making stems from interactions that are only relevant within certain subsets of data. Within these subsets, feature interactions may be simplified, forming simple structures where simple interpretable models can perform effectively. We propose a bottom-up simple structure-identifying algorithm that partitions data into interpretable subgroups known as simple structures, where feature interactions are minimized, allowing simple models to be trained within each subgroup. We demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm on synthetic data and show that the decision boundaries derived from simple structures are more interpretable and aligned with the intuition of the domain than those learned from a global model. By improving both explainability and predictive accuracy, our approach provides a principled framework for decision support in applications where model transparency is essential.

Keywords: Simple structure; Ensemble learning; Model explainability; Precision medicine; Business analytics; Decision science (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06674-w

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