Stochastic modeling of fatigue crack damagefor information‐based maintenance

Amit Ray and S. Phoha

Annals of Operations Research, 1999, vol. 91, issue 0, 204 pages

Abstract: The concept of information‐based maintenance is that of updating decisions for inspection,repair, and maintenance scheduling based on evolving knowledge of operation history andanticipated usage of the machinery as well as the physics and dynamics of materialdegradation in critical components. This paper presents a stochastic model of fatigue crackdamage in metallic structures for application to information‐based maintenance of operatingmachinery. The information on operation history allows the stochastic model to predict thecurrent state of damage, and the information on anticipated usage of the machinery facilitatesforecasting the remaining service life based on the stress level to which the criticalcomponents are likely to be subjected. The Karhunen‐Loève expansion for nonstationaryprocesses is utilized for formulating the stochastic model which generates the crack lengthstatistics in the setting of a two‐parameter lognormal distribution. Hypothesis tests are builtupon the (conditional) probability density function of crack damage that does not requirethe solution of stochastic differential equations in either Wiener integral or Itô integralsettings. Consequently, structural damage and remaining life of stressed components can bepredicted to make maintenance decisions in real time. The damage model is verified bycomparison with experimental data of fatigue crack statistics for 2024‐T3 and 7075‐T6aluminum alloys. Examples are presented to demonstrate how this concept can be appliedto hypothesis testing and remaining life prediction. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Date: 1999
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DOI: 10.1023/A:1018993505714

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