Forecasting Small-Area Agricultural Incomes Using a CGE Model of the Australian Economy

Peter J Higgs and Alan Powell

The Annals of Regional Science, 1990, vol. 24, issue 1, 43-59

Abstract: In this paper the ORANI model, which is a large computable general equilibrium (hereafter, CGE) model of the Australian economy, is used to generate forecasts of agricultural incomes for the south-western region of Victoria. ORANI is first solved for the effects of an economic scenario on commodity output responses in a geographically defined agricultural industry of the model which encompasses the region. These responses are then used to generate output indexes in local government areas (LGAs) in the region according to their base-period commodity mixes. Finally, these projections are converted into real farm income forecasts. Our methodology breaks new ground in combining short- and long-term forecasts, and in disaggregating forecasts for a national agricultural industry to the LGA level.

Date: 1990
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