 The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust and the Housing Market: A Further Look at the DebateGershon Alperovich The Annals of Regional Science, 1995, vol. 29, issue 1, 16 pages Abstract: Recently a number of papers appeared in the literature which analyzed the movement of the real price of housing in the US. Based on their analysis Mankiw and Weil predicted that housing values in the US would fall by 47% over the next twenty years. Understandably, this prediction raised considerable interest and controversy in the literature from scholars who casted serious doubts on the accuracy of the estimates derived by Mankiw and Weil. A major limitation overshadowing the entire debate is lack of rigorous derivation of the estimated models. In this paper we explicitly derive a consistent version of a static model of the housing market tacit in the estimated equations. The model shows that both the real asset price of housing equation and the real rental price of housing equation used by Mankiw and Weil and some of their critics are misspecified. It is suggested that using the correctly specified equations sheds light on the debate and may give more credible estimates of the estimates on which housing prices' predictions are based. Date: 1995 There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:anresc:v:29:y:1995:i:1:p:111-16 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article The Annals of Regional Science is currently edited by Martin Andersson, E. Kim and Janet E. Kohlhase More articles in The Annals of Regional Science from Springer, Western Regional Science Association Contact information at EDIRC. |
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