Land value dynamics and the spatial evolution of cities following COVID 19 using big data analytics

Erez Buda, Dani Broitman () and Daniel Czamanski
Additional contact information
Erez Buda: Technion – Israel Institute of Technology
Dani Broitman: Technion – Israel Institute of Technology
Daniel Czamanski: Rupin Academic Center

The Annals of Regional Science, 2023, vol. 70, issue 2, No 5, 429-445

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we present results of a land-use forecasting model that we calibrated with vast geo-referenced data of a major metropolitan area. Each land parcel includes information concerning regulations indicating permitted land-uses as well as the certain characteristics of existing buildings. Data concerning all real estate transactions include information about the assets and the price of the exchanges. Based on these data we estimated the spatial dynamics of land values in the metropolitan area over time and identified locations experiencing development pressures. This analysis allows us to forecast plausible futures of the urban spatial configuration. Taking the approach one step further, we propose simulations motivated by the natural experiment of COVID 19. We assumed that part of the behavioral changes observed during the pandemic will endure. The resulting simulations provide forecasts of the future spatial structure of the metropolitan area. Comparing the actual and the forecasted scenarios we interpret the spatial dynamics of the city as they would be if a business-as-usual-pre-Covid-19 scenario is realized, and possible trend changes if the impact of the pandemic is long lasting.

JEL-codes: R11 R12 R52 R58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00168-022-01153-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:anresc:v:70:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-022-01153-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://link.springer.com/journal/168

DOI: 10.1007/s00168-022-01153-7

Access Statistics for this article

The Annals of Regional Science is currently edited by Martin Andersson, E. Kim and Janet E. Kohlhase

More articles in The Annals of Regional Science from Springer, Western Regional Science Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().