The spatiotemporal effects of green fiscal expenditure on low-carbon transition: empirical evidence from china’s low-carbon pilot cities

Sai Yuan () and Xiongfeng Pan ()
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Sai Yuan: Dalian University of Technology
Xiongfeng Pan: Dalian University of Technology

The Annals of Regional Science, 2023, vol. 70, issue 2, No 8, 507-533

Abstract: Abstract This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and agglomeration characteristics of the scale and intensity of carbon emission scale and intensity in 21 low-carbon cities from 2005 to 2016 by kernel density estimations and Moran’s I. Based on the revealed comparative advantage index, environmental protection expenditure and science and technology expenditure are symmetrically treated as green fiscal expenditure proxy variables. Simultaneously, four models are constructed, involving non-time and non-space effect, time effect, spatial effect, and spatiotemporal effect, to investigate the effect of green fiscal expenditure on urban carbon emission. The results demonstrate that: First, the carbon emission scale continues to increase and does not present spatial agglomeration characteristics. Conversely, carbon emission intensity continues to decline and manifests spatial agglomeration heterogeneity. The uncoordinated regional economic development is a primary factor for spatial differences in carbon emission scale and intensity. Second, green fiscal expenditure enhances the effectiveness of emission reduction and generates spatiotemporal effects. In the short term, science and technology expenditure is more effective in carbon reduction than environmental protection expenditure. The former can resolve the emergency. Additionally, due to the radiation-driven effect, the latter has a negative spatial spillover effect. In the long term, environmental protection expenditure consistently restrains carbon emissions, and its reduction effect is sustainable. Third, economy and population are the drivers of carbon emission growth, and the structural effect is greater than the scale effect. An optimized energy structure can achieve carbon reductions. Technological innovation should not be ignored.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s00168-022-01159-1

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