A modeling study of the effect of social distancing policies on the early spread of coronavirus disease 2019: a case of South Korea

Moon-Hyun Kim (), Jiwon Lee (), Hee-Jin Oh (), Tsolmon Bayarsaikhan () and Tae-Hyoung Tommy Gim ()
Additional contact information
Moon-Hyun Kim: Seoul National University
Jiwon Lee: Seoul National University
Hee-Jin Oh: Seoul National University
Tsolmon Bayarsaikhan: Seoul National University
Tae-Hyoung Tommy Gim: Seoul National University

The Annals of Regional Science, 2023, vol. 71, issue 1, No 11, 225-242

Abstract: Abstract The social distancing policy is an effective way to prevent the spread of infectious diseases in the initial phase of their outbreak when medical evidence to support a particular course of treatment is deficient. While studies on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have mainly focused on the effects of specific measures (e.g., school and workplace closures and restrictions on movement), few investigated the characteristics of epidemic trends in response to the intensity of the policy and the amount of time required for policy measures to take effect. This study employs the SIRD (susceptible, infected, recovered, and deceased) model to analyze the COVID-19 epidemic trend according to the intensity of the social distancing policy in South Korea. The model reveals that the reproduction number began at 5.58 and fluctuated between 0.14 and 1.72 during the study period in accordance with different policy intensities. At the beginning of the social distancing policy, restrictions on public facility use were likely to have been effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19. When the intervention was relaxed, the transmission potential increased significantly. According to the reproduction number, social distancing policies prove to be effective after 13–19 days of implementation; however, as the pandemic progressed, this period extended from 13–14 to 18–19 days for the same effect. This suggests that governments need to consider not only the intensity of the social distancing policy, but also people’s low responsiveness as the pandemic remains prevalent over time. It is also recommended they take preemptive action to ensure sufficient time for the policy to achieve its stated goal.

JEL-codes: C63 I18 Z18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00168-022-01140-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:anresc:v:71:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-022-01140-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://link.springer.com/journal/168

DOI: 10.1007/s00168-022-01140-y

Access Statistics for this article

The Annals of Regional Science is currently edited by Martin Andersson, E. Kim and Janet E. Kohlhase

More articles in The Annals of Regional Science from Springer, Western Regional Science Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().