How does real estate market react to the iron ore boom in Australian capital cities?

Zheng Zheng Li () and Chi-Wei Su ()
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Zheng Zheng Li: Qingdao University
Chi-Wei Su: Qingdao University

The Annals of Regional Science, 2023, vol. 71, issue 2, No 10, 517-537

Abstract: Abstract This study concentrates on the dynamic response of housing markets to the changes in iron ore price by using the quantile-on-quantile regression method. Because iron ore production is highly geographically concentrated, we provide a more precise empirical analysis at the regional level. The results indicate that the iron ore price in most quantiles has a positive effect on the housing price in Perth because it benefits from the mining boom. However, once iron ore is exhausted, the real estate market will fail to drive the whole economy. The negative relationships between iron ore price in low quantiles and housing price are found in Adelaide and Hobart. In other regions, such as Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Darwin, housing prices are positively affected by iron ore prices in low quantiles and turn to negative in relative higher quantiles. This difference is attributed to resource endowment and labor mobility, as well as local policy orientation. Furthermore, the robustness test proves the credibility of the results when considering the endogeneity issue. The findings may deliver the reference that better management of real estate markets throughout a resource cycle, particularly in light of the mining industry with greater geopolitical shocks, could result in better socioeconomic outcomes for Australia.

Keywords: C22; O13; Q33; R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s00168-022-01179-x

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