Structural change in city systems evolution

Martin Andersson (), Börje Johansson and Thomas Niedomysl ()
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Martin Andersson: Department of Industrial Economics, Blekinge Institute of Technology (BTH); Swedish Entrepreneurship Forum, Stockholm, and CIRCLE, Lund University
Thomas Niedomysl: Nordregio, and the department of Human Geography, Stockholm University

The Annals of Regional Science, 2024, vol. 73, issue 4, No 7, 1517-1538

Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzes city system dynamics, based on a theoretical framework relating interaction potentials to agglomeration economies and density externalities. It employs new historical time series data on population size of cities in Sweden over two centuries (1810–2010) and introduces two schematic growth factors: (i) the intra-city potential and (ii) the extra-city potential located in in rings encircling each city. The first factor is measured by each city’s population size, while the second is a vector of distance-discounted population size for each of a city’s urban rings. In this way, we can explain a city’s growth as a function of its interaction potential inside the city, as well as inside the first, second hand third ring. A robust finding is that cities with large ring potentials follow different development paths than those with small ring potentials. We also find clear evidence of structural change between the two centuries 1810–1910 and 1910–2010. In the first period, city growth is positively impacted by the size of the intra-city potential, whereas the same potential dampens or reduces the growth in the second period. Moreover, the ring potentials outside the city tend to switch from having negative growth stimulation in the first period to having positive stimulation in the second period.

Keywords: City systems; Evolution; Urban growth; Size distribution; Spatial interaction; Spatial interdependence; City networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 L84 R11 R12 R30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s00168-024-01322-w

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