Bayesian Hierarchical Spatial Modeling of COVID-19 Cases in Bangladesh

Md. Rezaul Karim () and Sefat-E-Barket
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Md. Rezaul Karim: Jahangirnagar University
Sefat-E-Barket: Jahangirnagar University

Annals of Data Science, 2024, vol. 11, issue 5, No 5, 1607 pages

Abstract: Abstract This research aimed to investigate the spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity throughout Bangladesh’s 64 districts. Moran I and Geary C are used to measure spatial autocorrelation. Different conventional models, such as Poisson-Gamma and Poisson-Lognormal, and spatial models, such as Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Model, Convolution Model, and modified CAR Model, have been employed to detect the spatial heterogeneity. Bayesian hierarchical methods via Gibbs sampling are used to implement these models. The best model is selected using the Deviance Information Criterion. Results revealed Dhaka has the highest relative risk due to the city’s high population density and growth rate. This study identifies which district has the highest relative risk and which districts adjacent to that district also have a high risk, which allows for the appropriate actions to be taken by the government agencies and communities to mitigate the risk effect.

Keywords: COVID-19; Bayesian hierarchical models; Spatial dependency; Conditional Autoregressive model; Convolution model; Modified CAR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s40745-022-00461-1

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