Intervention Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccination in Nigeria: The Naive Solution Versus Interrupted Time Series

Desmond Chekwube Bartholomew (), Chrysogonus Chinagorom Nwaigwe, Ukamaka Cynthia Orumie and Godwin Onyeka Nwafor
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Desmond Chekwube Bartholomew: Federal University of Technology Owerri
Chrysogonus Chinagorom Nwaigwe: Federal University of Technology Owerri
Ukamaka Cynthia Orumie: University of Port Harcourt
Godwin Onyeka Nwafor: Federal University of Technology Owerri

Annals of Data Science, 2024, vol. 11, issue 5, No 6, 1609-1634

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, an intervention analysis approach was applied to daily cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria in order to evaluate the utilization and effect of the COVID-19 vaccine administered in the country. Data on the daily report of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria were collected and subjected to two models: the naïve solution and the interrupted time series (the intervention model). Based on the Alkaike Information Criterion (AIC), sigma2, and log likelihood values, the interrupted time series model outperformed the Naïve solution model. ARIMA (4, 1, 4) with exogenous variables was identified as the best model. It was observed that the intervention (vaccination) was not significant at the 5% level of significance in reducing the number of daily COVID-19 cases in Nigeria since the start of the vaccination on March 5, 2021, until March 28, 2022. Also, the ARIMA (4, 1, 4) forecasts indicated that there will be surge in the number of daily COVID-19 cases in Nigeria between January and April 2023. As a result, we recommend strict adherence to COVID-19 protocols as well as further vaccination and sensitization programs to educate people on the importance of vaccine uptake and avoid Corona virus spread in the year 2023 and beyond.

Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccination; Effect; Intervention analysis; Interrupted time series; Naïve solution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s40745-023-00462-8

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