Forecasting extreme seasonal tourism demand: the case of Rishiri Island in Japan

Niematallah Elamin and Mototsugu Fukushige ()
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Niematallah Elamin: Osaka University

Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 2018, vol. 2, issue 2, No 2, 279-296

Abstract: Abstract The existence of extreme seasonal demand, such that off-season monthly demand is close to zero, means that tourism operators are forced to be more efficient in the high season. It also means that it is important to construct a forecast model for the high-season demand. In forecasting tourism demand for a location such as a cold-water island, we face such extreme seasonality. Rishiri Island in Japan is a typical example. We construct several forecasting models and evaluate their forecasting performance. Forecasts from the SARIMA model with full-season data and without a trend term perform best in postsample evaluation.

Keywords: Tourism forecasting; Seasonal time series; SARIMA model; State-space modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 R29 Z33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s41685-017-0048-y

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