Impact of climate change on summer crop production in Australia: insights from the empirical nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach

Farhana Arefeen Mila (), Siddhartha Shankar Roy, Monira Parvin Moon and Jaba Rani Sarker
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Farhana Arefeen Mila: Gazipur Agricultural University, Department of Agribusiness
Siddhartha Shankar Roy: Bangladesh Bank
Monira Parvin Moon: Gazipur Agricultural University, Department of Rural Development
Jaba Rani Sarker: Gazipur Agricultural University, Department of Agricultural Economics

Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 2025, vol. 9, issue 4, No 8, 1114 pages

Abstract: Abstract Climate change poses a significant threat to the sustainability of summer crop production in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, a region where agriculture is vital to the economy and rural livelihoods yet increasingly vulnerable to climatic variability. This study employed a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to investigate the asymmetric short- and long-run effects of maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and relative humidity on aggregate summer crop production from 1989 to 2023. The results revealed statistically significant asymmetric relationships: positive rainfall shocks exerted a favorable influence on yields in both the short and long term, whereas rising maximum temperatures were associated with substantial yield reductions. Minimum temperature increases and moderate CO₂ concentrations demonstrated positive effects, while elevated humidity at high temperatures contributed to productivity losses. These findings highlight the complex and differentiated pathways through which climatic factors affect crop performance and underscore the necessity of targeted, crop-sensitive adaptation strategies. Such measures are essential to enhance the resilience and long-term sustainability of the agricultural sector in NSW under evolving climatic conditions. Graphical abstract

Keywords: Summer crop production; NSW; NARDL model; Climate variables; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s41685-025-00401-w

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