Modell, Annahmen und Ergebnisse einer nach Migrationshintergrund differenzierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung für Bayern bis 2022

Kristin Woltering ()

AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, 2014, vol. 8, issue 1, 49-79

Abstract: Population projections quantify the changes in size and composition of a population that would occur if recent demographic trends were to continue into the future. This essay presents the model, the underlying assumptions, and the results of a projection of the Bavarian population differentiated by its immigrant background. The population with immigrant background does not only comprise residing aliens but also ethnic German immigrants and naturalised Germans plus their respective German children. The adopted model is based on the cohort component method. The considered demographic components are fertility, mortality, migration and the change between sub-populations, either by birth or by naturalisation. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Keywords: Bevölkerung; Vorausberechnung; Migrationshintergrund; C10; J11; Population; Projection; Immigrant Background (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:astaws:v:8:y:2014:i:1:p:49-79

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DOI: 10.1007/s11943-014-0139-4

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