EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Decision Analytics with Heatmap Visualization for Multi-step Ensemble Data

Cornelius Köpp, Hans-Jörg von Mettenheim and Michael Breitner ()

Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, 2014, vol. 6, issue 3, 140 pages

Abstract: Today’s forecasting techniques, which are integrated into several information systems, often use ensembles that represent different scenarios. Aggregating these forecasts is a challenging task: when using the mean or median (common practice), important information is lost, especially if the underlying distribution at every step is multimodal. To avoid this, the authors present a heatmap visualization approach. It is easy to visually distinguish regions of high activity (high probability of realization) from regions of low activity. This form of visualization allows to identify splitting paths in the forecast ensemble and adds a “third alternative” to the decision space. Most forecast systems only offer “up” or “down”: the presented heatmap visualization additionally introduces “don’t know”. Looking at the heatmap, regions can be identified in which the underlying forecast model cannot predict the outcome. The authors present a software prototype with interactive visualization to support decision makers and discuss the information gained by its use. The prototype has already been presented to and discussed with researchers and practitioners. Copyright Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 2014

Keywords: Decision analytics; Forecast; Visualization; Fuzzy decision making; Uncertainty modeling; Historical consistent neural network (HCNN); Heatmap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s12599-014-0326-4 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:binfse:v:6:y:2014:i:3:p:131-140

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/12599

DOI: 10.1007/s12599-014-0326-4

Access Statistics for this article

Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK is currently edited by Martin Bichler

More articles in Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK from Springer, Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

 
Page updated 2023-11-14
Handle: RePEc:spr:binfse:v:6:y:2014:i:3:p:131-140