Modelling Global Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 Model; Tin

Anna Hulda Olafsdottir () and Harald Ulrik Sverdrup ()
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Anna Hulda Olafsdottir: University of Iceland
Harald Ulrik Sverdrup: University of Iceland

Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, 2018, vol. 3, issue 3, 1-17

Abstract: Abstract The extraction, supply, market price, and recycling of tin (Sn) were modelled using the WORLD6 model. The model used estimates for primary resources of tin and secondary production from copper, zinc, lead, and wolfram. The resource estimates made resulted in significantly larger estimates than earlier studies for tin. Ultimately recoverable resources amount to 87 million tons, where 20 million tons is primary and the rest are secondary as by-products from refining of wolfram, copper, zinc, and lead from primary mining. The model is able to reconstruct the observed mining, extraction rates, recycling degree, and price histories well. The model outputs illustrate that tin is a finite resource and that there is a risk for supply scarcity unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved. Soft scarcity for tin will develop around 2050, i.e. when demand exceeds supply resulting in higher price and then decreases because of higher prices, and convert into hard scarcity around 2150 AD, where the amounts demanded simply cannot be delivered. For tin, there are good substitutes for many uses, but some of them imply some loss in functionality.

Keywords: Tin; System dynamics; Mining; Extraction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s41247-018-0041-8

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