Transition to Renewable Energy: An Attempt to Model the Mix of Existing and Future Generation Technologies for 2035 and 2050

Nolberto Munier ()
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Nolberto Munier: Polytechnical University of Valencia

Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, 2023, vol. 8, issue 4, 1-17

Abstract: Abstract Pioneered by most advanced countries a global trend is taking place to eliminate fossil fuels (including green natural gas) and in some extent, nuclear plants, for electric energy generation. Part of these efforts aim at improving known and proven technologies such as wind, solar, hydro and biomass, by increasing their efficiency, as well as decreasing the contamination they produce in a greater or a lesser degree. Examining the abundant existent literature on future needs and projections of sources for energy generation, there are certainly publications that estimate the share of each technology, but they are mostly based on estimates grounded mainly on prices and trends. See for instance, Energy Information Agency (2019). In this proposal it is suggested that said estimate should not be based only on one or two criteria like prices and contamination, but on a set of multiple criteria, related with economics, society, environment, new technologies, sustainability, efficiency, risks, geographic characteristics, climate change, etc. Consequently, alternatives or technologies should be selected based on this set of criteria, and thus, from different points of view. However, relative evaluation must not be done individually, but considering simultaneously all technologies and the different periods, which is a complicated endeavor. This paper suggests a methodology, based on sound mathematics applied to government plans, as well as forecasted demands, and expected new technologies, to define the most convenient and efficient mix of technologies for 2035 and 2050.

Keywords: Demand; Renewable sources; Energy matrix; Technologies mix; MCDM; SIMUS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00114-8

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