N-tuple S&P patterns across decades, 1950–2011

A. Malliaris () and Mary Malliaris
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Anastasios G. Malliaris

Central European Journal of Operations Research, 2014, vol. 22, issue 2, 339-353

Abstract: Numerous studies have analyzed the movements of the S&P 500 index using several methodologies such as technical analysis, econometric modeling, time series techniques and theories from behavioral finance. In this paper we take a novel approach. We use daily closing prices for the S&P 500 index for a very long period from 1/3/1950 to 7/19/2011 for a total of 15,488 daily observations. We then investigate the up and down movements and their combinations for 1–7 days giving us multiple possible patterns for over six decades. Some patterns of each type are more dominant across decades. We split the data into training and validation sets and then select the dominant patterns to build conditional forecasts in several ways, including using a decision tree methodology. The best model is correct 51 % of the time on the validation set when forecasting a down day, and 61 % when forecasting an up day. We show that certain conditional forecasts outperform the unconditional random walk model. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Keywords: S&P 500 index; Patterns across decades; Random walk; Decision tree methodology; C44; C53; G14; G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10100-013-0298-3 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:22:y:2014:i:2:p:339-353

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... search/journal/10100

DOI: 10.1007/s10100-013-0298-3

Access Statistics for this article

Central European Journal of Operations Research is currently edited by Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger

More articles in Central European Journal of Operations Research from Springer, Slovak Society for Operations Research, Hungarian Operational Research Society, Czech Society for Operations Research, Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR), Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research, Croatian Operational Research Society
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().